Edited by Alexia Angeli
Since the fall of Muammar Ghaddafi in 2011, Libya has faced political division and several security crises that have led to conflict and political dysfunction, shattering the hope for a stable democratic transition. Given its strategic and pivotal location at the centre of the Mediterranean Sea, Libya’s internal stability has several consequences concerning security and migration management; persistent violence and periodic escalations in conflict, combined with a prolonged political deadlock, have created a power vacuum that has severely undermined security, rule of law and socio-economic stability.
Today, Libya stands not only as a fractured state, but also as a pivotal centre in global migration flows, particularly toward Europe. This article aims at analysing the evolution of Libya’s political crisis, the consequences of this instability and its role in shaping migration dynamics. Understanding the interplay between these crucial issues is useful not only to understand the complicated situation Libya is facing, but also to have a clear view of the wider international and humanitarian implications.
Libya’s political crisis
Since the fall of al-Qaddafi in 2011, Libya has struggled with its attempt to rebuild. Even after an attempt at a democratic transition with the General National Congress (GNC), the country swiftly faced general chaos.
By 2014, new actors appeared in the Libyan scene. First of all, General Khalifa Haftar, leader of the LNA (Libyan National Army), aligned with the Eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR); second, the Tripoli-based GNC was supported by local groups and various Islamist factions. Both sides created parallel institutions, sparking a civil conflict in Libya. In 2015, the United Nations attempts to mediate a peace led to the formation of the Government of National Accord (GNA). Over time, the GNA struggled to influence and assert control over the Libyan territory, which saw the emergence of ISIS-affiliated groups, particularly around Sirte.
The continued interference of international actors has added another layer of complexity to the conflict, revealing an intrinsic and interlinked web of outside agendas. Thanks to the cease-fire in 2020, the Government of National Unity (GNU) was created in 2021, aiming for a Libyan reunification after the elections.
The profoundly fragmented political landscape was very clear when the HoR accused the GNU of overstaying its mandate and named Fathi Bashagha as the rival Prime Minister. Since 2022, Libya has been mired in a state of political deadlock, characterized by the presence of multiple governing entities, armed militias dispersed throughout the nation’s territory, sporadic instances of violence, and persistent disagreements concerning the so-called black gold. Despite the cease-fires, Libya remains deeply fragmented, leaving hope for a union still far away from reality.
The consequent humanitarian emergency
Over time, the conflict in Libya has caused various humanitarian consequences on the Libyan civilian population. Thousands of people have been arbitrarily detained in conditions violating many of the main human rights values. Essential services – like healthcare, access to clean water, and education – have been cut off.
The continuous climate of fear has been fostered by not only violations, abuses and conflicts between militias, but also by the disruption of crucial social services and vital infrastructures, leaving civilians in a state of deeper vulnerability.
Over time, international organizations – including the United Nations, the IOM and the UNHCR – have been working on providing aid and assistance to the affected populations, reporting and documenting the numerous violations in the territory, highlighting the emergency the Libyan people are currently facing.
It is imperative to ascertain whether these reports are being given due consideration. It appears that this is not the case. In fact, the lack of accountability for human rights violations seems to be worsening the possible prospects of a significant reconciliation.
Although Libya is formally a party to international legal instruments such as the Geneva Convention and the ICCPR (International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights), the absence of a unified state authority and effective enforcement mechanisms means that violations continue to occur with widespread impunity.
The intricated issue of migration
Over time, Libya has also become a key centre of global migration flows, where migrants and refugees are seeking the opportunity to reach Europe following the Central Mediterranean route. In fact, the current conflict and the persistent chaos within the country have intensified Libya’s role as a migration hub.
In the current fragmented situation, in the absence of a strong central power, human traffickers and smugglers have exploited the country’s borders and transformed them into profitable enterprises, basically exploiting those who want to leave the country and seek asylum.
The journey of a migrant trying to reach Europe is marked by extreme danger and difficulties; in fact, migrants are usually subjected to arbitrary detention, torture, sexual violence, extortion and forced labor. Many are detained in camps controlled by militias, where they are subjected to inhumane conditions.
Libya has become a dangerous and exploitative environment for migrants and refugees, where their fundamental rights are systematically violated with little to no accountability.
There have been many international efforts to address this complex situation, including the European Union, specifically in policies regarding border control.
Cooperation with the Libyan Coast Guard has led to thousands of migrants being intercepted at sea and returned to Libya. While the European Union frames such cooperation as necessary to reduce irregular crossing and prevent loss of life at sea, it has been widely criticized. But the problem is that the returns result in renewed cycles of violence, abuse and detention, leading to more criticism by human rights organizations.
The migration issue in Libya is one of the main issues that creates tension within the European Union. There is a need for balance between border security and the protection of human rights, with greater concerns about considering Libya a safe country. Without a proper unified country and an efficient international engagement, the migrant crisis, violation of human rights, and political dysfunctions will persist.
Conclusion
As of today, while the core drivers of Libya’s crisis remain unchanged, the conflict has evolved from an active civil war into a protracted and institutionalized political stalemate, characterized by low-intensity violence and entrenched divisions.
Libya stands at a crossroads: fragmented politics, humanitarian crisis and a complex migration landscape, each reinforcing the other. Without a political unity and a stronger international engagement, the situation is set to remain unchanged.