Political polarization in Europe post-2024: impacts on migration and energy transition

Edited by Sokhna Fall

Cover image: European Green Deal. Source: VoteWatch

Project context and relevance

In recent years, and particularly since 2024, the European Union has been facing growing emotional political polarization, characterized not only by ideological differences but also by hostility between political groups based on identity. The literature shows that this phenomenon has a direct impact on the ability of democratic systems to build consensus, compromising complex, multi-level decision-making processes.

This project aims to analyze how polarization affects two politically sensitive and interconnected areas:

• Migration policies, often exploited as markers of identity;
• The energy transition, central to the Green Deal but vulnerable to distributional and narrative conflicts.

General objective

To assess, through existing literature, whether and how increasing political polarization in Europe reduces the possibility of consensus on:

1. Inclusive and cooperative migration policies;
2. Ambitious energy transition policies, such as the European Green Deal.

Research questions

1. How much does polarization vary between EU countries?
2. Does it negatively influence the adoption of agreements such as the Green Deal?
3. What is the role of social media in divisive narratives?

Methodology

Critical review of interdisciplinary literature, combining:

• Quantitative studies (ESS, Eurobarometer, survey-based polarization studies);
• Qualitative analysis (political discourse, social media, policy framing).

Proposed structure of the paper

1. Introduction: post-2024 context and political relevance.
2. Political polarization in Europe: definitions, measurements, trends.
3. Polarization and migration policies: consensus, conflict, securitization.
4. Polarization and energy transition: Green Deal, backlash, and politicization.
5. Social media and divisive narratives: emotions, identity, disinformation.
6. Conclusions: implications for European governance.

Theoretical framework

McMurtry, C. L., & Cheu, R. (2025). Political Polarization During Disease Outbreaks: A Meta-Analysis of Archival Survey Data From Polio to COVID-19. American Journal of Public Health, 116(1), 124–136. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2025.308226

Stukal, D. K., Shilina, A. N., & Akhremenko, A. S. (2025). Social media as an alter ego of reality: What does affective political polarization teach us? RUDN Journal of Political Science, 27(3), 430–443. https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-1438-2025-27-3-430-443

Valdés, J. (2025). Trends in Political Science Research: Political Consumerism. International Political Science Abstracts, 75(4), 583–595. https://doi.org/10.1177/00208345251369944

Waldrop, M. M. (2025). Can science-based interventions tamp down polarization? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 122(4), e2500158122. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2500158122